Public affairs commentator Ope Banwo has described as “strategic folly” the assumption that a former political office holder can openly confront the Nigerian state without consequences.
Banwo made the remarks while analysing the recent detention of former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai, which he said underscores the imbalance between individual ambition and institutional power.
“Only fools believe they can challenge the state the way El-Rufai did and continue life as usual,” Banwo stated. “The Nigerian state is not a debating club.”
He noted that El-Rufai repeatedly made grave allegations against government institutions on national platforms, including claims of conspiracies and surveillance, without publicly providing evidence. According to Banwo, such statements, whether true or not, inevitably provoke a response from authorities determined to maintain control.
Banwo explained that when a former official challenges state authority, it is often interpreted not as dissent but as defiance. “The state reacts to defiance, not arguments,” he said.
He further argued that El-Rufai appeared to overestimate his political backing, assuming that his past influence would shield him from institutional action. “That assumption collapsed the moment power called his bluff,” Banwo added.
According to him, the involvement of agencies such as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission and the Department of State Services illustrates how swiftly the machinery of state can move once a decision is made.
Banwo also highlighted the public’s muted reaction as a crucial lesson. “There were no mass protests. That silence shows the difference between perceived influence and real leverage,” he said.
He stressed that political power in Nigeria is sustained by active control of institutions, not by reputation. “Once you lose the levers, your bravado becomes a liability,” Banwo noted.
He concluded that El-Rufai’s experience should caution other former power brokers against mistaking visibility for authority. “Fighting the state without power is not courage; it is miscalculation,” he said.
